16.05.202518:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is experiencing renewed intraday pressure, falling below the key psychological level of $3200 during the first half of the European session on Friday. Optimism surrounding the trade truce between the United States and China continues to dampen demand for traditional safe-haven assets, preventing the metal from capitalizing on the strong rebound observed the previous day.

On Thursday, weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data from the U.S. reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields. While this has kept the U.S. dollar under pressure for a second straight day, it has failed to support gold, which continues to decline. Geopolitical risks and other external factors are currently insufficient to offset the prevailing bearish sentiment toward gold.

From a technical perspective, gold prices remain above the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to enter positive territory. As a result, it would be prudent to wait for a strong continuation of buying before confirming that last week's price decline has fully exhausted itself.

At the same time, weakness below the $3200 level may find support near the $3178–3177 area. A break below this zone could expose gold to further downside toward yesterday's low near $3120. A continuation of bearish momentum could drive the price toward the $3100 level and potentially down to the next major support at $3060.

On the other hand, the $3252–3255 level acts as immediate resistance. A sustained break above this area could trigger a fresh wave of short-covering, allowing gold to retest the $3300 level. If this key level is breached, the bias would shift in favor of the bulls.