27.05.202519:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is extending its decline for the second day in a row.

The pressure on gold is driven by a combination of factors: optimism stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to postpone tariffs on goods from the European Union, as well as a rebound in the U.S. dollar from its monthly low—both of which reduce the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Nonetheless, ongoing uncertainty in Trump's trade policy, concerns over the deteriorating U.S. fiscal position, and geopolitical risks continue to support demand for the yellow metal. Additionally, expectations of further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve—including a potential rate cut in 2025—are limiting significant dollar strength. This, in turn, curbs gold's downside potential and provides underlying support.

In this context, traders should exercise caution when opening aggressive short positions on the XAU/USD pair, considering the limited downside and potential for a price rebound based on fundamental factors.

From a technical perspective, a break below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart would expose gold to deeper losses.

On the other hand, the $3325–3326 level serves as immediate resistance ahead of the $3366 level. Sustained strength beyond this level could act as a new bullish trigger, allowing gold to return to the psychological $3400 level. The next significant barrier lies at $3438, and a breakout above that would clear the way toward intermediate resistance at $3470 and potentially the historical high near the $3500 level.

For now, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, bulls maintain control over the gold market.