04.06.202509:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair remains in a sideways consolidation near its lowest levels since October 2024. Market participants are awaiting the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, which will be announced during the North American session. According to preliminary forecasts, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its key interest rate at 2.75%. Thus, particular attention should be paid to the accompanying statement at the press conference, which may provide important clues about the future direction of monetary policy and influence the Canadian dollar and the USD/CAD pair.

Additionally, the release of the ADP private sector employment report in the U.S. and the ISM Services PMI will impact demand for the U.S. dollar. These data will offer short-term trading opportunities, boosting interest in the U.S. dollar. However, a significant rise in the USD/CAD pair is unlikely due to bearish expectations for the U.S. dollar, stemming from forecasts of further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

Moreover, concerns about the worsening fiscal situation in the U.S. could limit attempts by the dollar to recover from the six-week low reached yesterday, Tuesday.

At the same time, the modest decline in crude oil prices is putting pressure on the Canadian dollar, which is traditionally sensitive to commodity prices, thereby providing support to the USD/CAD pair.

Thus, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is downward. This is confirmed by oscillators, which are in negative territory, indicating further declines for the pair.