05.06.202511:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today the AUD/JPY pair is attracting new buyers. Recent Chinese data, including the private Caixin survey, showed a moderate acceleration in growth in China's services sector in May: the PMI rose from 50.7 in April to 51.1 in May, in line with market expectations. These figures did not provide a significant boost to the Australian dollar, which is closely tied to China's economy. Nevertheless, hopes for possible negotiations between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping continue to support the Australian dollar, providing some backing to the AUD/JPY pair. On the other hand, the moderate rise in the U.S. dollar is putting pressure on the Japanese yen, contributing to the intraday growth of the AUD/JPY pair.

However, expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates are limiting active selling of the Japanese yen. These expectations are supported by data showing that real wages in Japan declined for the fourth consecutive month in April amid persistent inflation. Together with geopolitical risks, this is capping yen losses and, consequently, limiting the rise of the AUD/JPY pair. Additionally, the dovish policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is exerting pressure on the Australian dollar, restraining its growth.

From a technical standpoint, the current price range observed over the past two weeks requires caution before opening new positions. For confirmation of further short-term growth in the AUD/JPY pair, a sustained move and daily close above the psychological level of 93.00 is needed, especially amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.–China trade tensions. Nevertheless, oscillators on the daily chart have started to gain positive momentum, supporting the upbeat sentiment in the pair.