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As I anticipated, the lack of a broad positive outcome in negotiations between China and the U.S. and renewed inflationary pressure led to a sharp decline in demand for corporate stocks, causing stock indices to fall across all major global exchanges. However, this isn't the only important reason for the overall increase in market pessimism.
The ongoing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington and persistent inflation in the U.S. represent a strong negative factor for investors. But a new catalyst has emerged—pushing gold prices up as a safe-haven asset and fueling a near-vertical rise in crude oil prices: Israel's "preemptive" strike on Iran. Tel Aviv claims Tehran continues to work on developing nuclear weapons. This news caused crude oil prices to spike 7% in the moment, sparking fears of potential supply disruptions.
The risk of a crisis escalation that could ignite the entire Middle East is looming. Israel's aggressive stance is dragging the world toward a full-scale war between nations that supposedly lack nuclear weapons—but might acquire them if needed.
Markets are reacting to the surge in geopolitical tension with declining demand not only for equities but also for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum have plunged under pressure from geopolitical factors, and the same is happening with other major tokens.
On the Forex market, the U.S. dollar was initially under pressure due to the U.S.-China standoff—an issue that overshadowed a moderate uptick in inflation that might have otherwise supported it. But today, the greenback is actively recovering on cautious safe-haven demand.
Among economic data, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment figures may attract attention today, but as has been the case in recent months, they are unlikely to influence market sentiment significantly. Market participants remain focused on the ongoing tariff wars instigated by Donald Trump. In addition, the crisis escalation between Iran and Israel is currently at the center of investor attention. Everyone is awaiting Iran's response, which will undoubtedly follow—but what comes next remains behind a veil of uncertainty: either it ends there, or the world will be shaken by something more serious than a mere exchange of strikes.
The overall negative trend will likely continue after a short-lived recovery, driven by the risk of war between Iran and Israel. A correction in stock markets and a decline in token demand will likely be accompanied by a rise in crude oil and gold prices and a recovery in the U.S. dollar index on the Forex market.
The token plunged amid the Middle East crisis. While it's currently rebounding, Iran's inevitable response could trigger another drop once resistance at 105,380.00 is reached. A reversal from this level may lead to a decline toward 101,882.00. The 105,059.60 mark may serve as an optimal level for selling.
The NASDAQ 100 futures CFD is recovering after a sharp drop. However, growing expectations of a full-scale military conflict between Israel and Iran—likely to escalate—will continue to exert pressure on stock markets, including those in the U.S. The contract may resume its downward movement. A drop below the support level at 21,473.70 will reinforce the bearish trend, possibly driving the price down to 21,031.00. The 21,443.00 level may serve as an entry point for selling.
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