18.06.202519:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers on the decline above the key 0.6000 level, reversing the recent pullback from the yearly high and remaining within a two-week range. Traders are awaiting the outcome of the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, set to conclude during today's North American session.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged, amid concerns over a potential rise in inflation due to trade tariffs and their impact on consumer prices. A key factor will be the post-meeting statement, including the updated dot plot and comments from Chair Jerome Powell, which will help clarify the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. These developments could significantly influence the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the NZD/USD pair.

Despite strong gains in the previous session, expectations that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as September—due to signs of slowing economic growth and declining inflation—are limiting dollar strength. At the same time, expectations of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are not putting excessive pressure on the New Zealand dollar. However, the combination of these factors is also capping further upside in the pair.

Persistent uncertainty surrounding trade disputes and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also adding to overall market risk. Therefore, it is advisable to wait for a confirmed breakout above the resistance zone of 0.6065–0.6070 before opening new long positions on NZD/USD. A break above this level could signal further upside in the near term.

Additional confirmation of a continued positive outlook for the pair comes from the bullish oscillators on the daily chart.