26.06.202512:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

Intraday demand for the Japanese yen remains steady, accompanied by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, contributing to the decline in the USD/JPY pair.

Rising expectations that the Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates due to signs of increasing inflation in the country continue to support the Japanese currency. Meanwhile, reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have raised concerns about the future independence of the central bank and are contributing to the yen's strength as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the standoff between Trump and Powell, along with expectations of Fed rate cuts, is pushing the U.S. dollar toward its lowest levels in more than three years, placing further pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical standpoint, a break below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, located in the 144.70–144.65 level, can be seen as a key bearish signal. With oscillators on both hourly and daily charts showing negative momentum, current prices have accelerated the decline toward the psychological level of 144.00. A sustained move below this level could send prices into the 143.70–143.65 level before testing levels below 143.00.

On the other hand, any recovery attempts above the key psychological level of 145.00 will likely face resistance around 145.75 and be capped near 146.00. This level will act as a pivot point: a breakout above it would shift the short-term bias in favor of the bulls, pushing the USD/JPY pair higher toward the round level of 147.00. Further upside could lead to a move toward the 147.45–147.50 area before another attempt to break through the 148.00 level.