27.06.202510:43 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. Analysis, Forecast and Current Market Situation

Today, following the release of data showing a decline in consumer prices in Tokyo, the Japanese yen began to weaken. This news reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan may postpone an interest rate hike until the first quarter of 2026, which the market perceives negatively as it reduces the attractiveness of the Japanese currency. In addition to domestic factors, uncertainty regarding the potential impact of U.S. tariff measures on the Japanese economy is also contributing to the decline in the yen's appeal.

From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair on the 4-hour chart fell below the key 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Given that oscillators on both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts have moved into negative territory, continued weakness below the key 144.00 level would leave spot prices vulnerable to further declines below the 143.75 level or yesterday's low. Ultimately, the downtrend could push prices below the psychological level of 143.00.

On the other hand, a steady move back above the 200-SMA, followed by strength beyond the psychological level of 145.00 and the 50-SMA resistance around 145.25, would negate the bearish outlook. The USD/JPY pair would then attempt to break through the 146.00 level. If that level is firmly cleared, the upward trajectory may continue toward the 147.00 level, with a possible pause in the 146.50–146.65 level.