27.06.202512:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum during today's trading session, reversing its recent decline.The euro continues to benefit from the prevailing sentiment of selling the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the Japanese yen is attracting intraday sellers following the release of weak Tokyo Consumer Price Index data.

The data indicates that retail sales in Japan grew at the slowest pace since February, which strengthens expectations that the Bank of Japan may refrain from raising interest rates in 2025. These factors, along with positive dynamics in risk asset markets, are reducing the appeal of the safe-haven yen, thereby reinforcing a favorable outlook for the EUR/JPY pair.

However, the technical picture signals certain limitations for further bullish movement: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains close to the overbought zone, which may discourage traders from initiating new long positions. As a result, the pair is likely to continue consolidating. Nevertheless, the market bias remains bullish, suggesting that any pullback could find support near the 168.65 level.

A decisive break below this support would trigger technical selling, paving the way for a decline. The EUR/JPY pair would then accelerate its movement toward the 168.00 psychological level, to the 167.60–167.55 level, and ultimately toward the key round level of 167.00. A break below this level would shift the bias in favor of the bears.

On the other hand, the 169.75 level — the yearly high reached on Monday — will act as resistance. A sustained move beyond this high and a subsequent breakout above the 170.00 psychological level would be seen as a new trigger for the bulls, allowing the EUR/JPY pair to climb even higher.