01.10.202616:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signals for XAU/USD on October 1-3, 2026: buy above $4,140 (21 SMA - 1/8 Murray)

XAU/USD is trading around $4,161 above the 21-day SMA and rebounding after hitting a low of $4,113 during Monday's US session.

Gold left a gap around $4,287. Technically, we expect it to reach this area in the coming days and fill this gap.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the instrument is oversold, and recent trading shows consolidation above the 1/8 Murray level. We believe that if the price remains above the 21 SMA, the outlook could be a recovery so that gold could reach the 3/8 Murray level around $4,296.

A drop below the 21 SMA could be seen as a negative signal, and we could expect the downtrend to continue, with the price potentially reaching the 1/8 Murray level and possibly even the 0/8 Murray level around $4,060.

We should keep an eye on the $4,140 area; above this level, our strategy will be to buy until the price reaches the 2/8 Murray level (first profit target) and wait for the price to retest the high left at 4,287; finally, we expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,312.

Given that the Eagle indicator is giving a positive signal, a pullback as part of a technical correction could be considered a buy signal in the coming hours, always with a stop-loss below the 1/8 Murray level.