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The situation for the British pound in the market and news landscape is quite similar. For the pound, two rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025 or zero easing rounds from the Federal Reserve are not an issue. Economic news is important, but even when it supports the dollar, it's usually isolated and short-lived. Therefore, economic data next week will not play a key role in the market once again. The primary focus will be on statements made by Donald Trump and his decisions regarding tariffs and other significant matters. This past week, Trump launched a campaign putting pressure on Jerome Powell, which ultimately created new pressure on the U.S. dollar. The more such developments occur, the higher the likelihood of reduced demand for the dollar.
On Monday, the UK will release its GDP report for the first quarter. As a reminder, the two preliminary estimates pointed to economic growth of 0.7% quarter-over-quarter and 1.3% year-over-year. The quarterly figure is quite high for the British economy. In recent years, economic growth has only exceeded 0.7% once.
On Tuesday, the Manufacturing PMI for June will be published, along with a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. However, it's worth noting that Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Powell all spoke multiple times this week. But news related to Trump still took center stage. On Thursday, another PMI—this time in the services sector—will be released. After that, the flow of news will subside.
In my opinion, none of the events mentioned above will significantly influence market sentiment. I do not anticipate any important reports being released, and I believe Bailey is unlikely to be any more vocal than he has been this week or the last.
Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD pair, I conclude that it continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, and there are still no positive developments. The targets for wave 3 could extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but currently, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave structure; however, for now, the working scenario remains intact. Trump continues to take steps that undermine the demand for the dollar. The targets for the ascending wave 3 are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.
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