04.07.202518:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 4th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1787 level as a key point for making trading decisions. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to analyze what happened. A rise and a false breakout near 1.1787 led to an entry into short positions, but a significant decline in the pair did not follow. The technical outlook has not changed for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

Weak data on German industrial orders and Italian retail sales limited the pair's upward potential in the first half of the day. During the U.S. session, volatility may decrease further due to the Independence Day holiday, as U.S. markets are closed. If the pair declines, buyers will likely focus on the support level of 1.1749. A false breakout at this level would be a signal to buy EUR/USD in anticipation of a return to the bullish trend and a retest of 1.1787. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm the entry point, aiming for 1.1825. The ultimate target will be 1.1866, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.1749, the pair may come under increased pressure toward the end of the week, potentially falling to 1.1713. I will consider long positions only after a false breakout forms at that level. Otherwise, I plan to buy on a rebound from 1.1676, targeting an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers have taken a wait-and-see approach, explaining the market's low volatility. If the euro rises, I plan to act only after a false breakout near 1.1787, similar to the setup discussed above. This would justify short positions targeting a move to the 1.1749 support. A breakout and consolidation below this range would support further selling toward 1.1713. The ultimate target is 1.1676, where I will take profit.If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and bears remain inactive around 1.1787, buyers may push for further development of the bullish trend and a retest of 1.1825. I will consider selling only after a failed consolidation at that level. I also plan to sell immediately on a rebound from 1.1866, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) – June 24:

The COT report showed an increase in long positions and a decrease in shorts. The euro remains in demand, while the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. Recent U.S. inflation and GDP data have led market participants to revise expectations toward an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, applying additional pressure on the dollar.According to the report, long non-commercial positions rose by 2,980 to 223,791, while short non-commercial positions fell by 6,602 to 119,258. As a result, the net position gap between longs and shorts increased by 4,077.

Indicator Signals:

Moving AveragesTrading is occurring around the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating difficulty for the euro to continue rising.Note: The moving average periods and prices are based on the author's analysis of the H1 chart and may differ from classic D1 daily chart interpretations.

Bollinger Bands If the pair declines, the lower band near 1.1740 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (period 50, yellow): smooths volatility and shows trend direction
• Moving Average (period 30, green): smooths volatility and shows trend direction
• MACD: Fast EMA – 12, Slow EMA – 26, Signal SMA – 9
• Bollinger Bands: period 20
• Non-commercial traders: speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes
• Long non-commercial positions: total long open interest of non-commercial traders
• Short non-commercial positions: total short open interest of non-commercial traders
• Net non-commercial position: the difference between short and long non-commercial positions