07.07.202513:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Stock market on July 7: S&P500 and NASDAQ drop

Last Friday was a public holiday in the US, so trading was not conducted.

However, today, at the opening of the Asian session, index futures declined while the US dollar rose. Investor reluctance to take risks increased after President Donald Trump heightened trade tensions, stating that the US would begin sending tariff letters to countries as early as today.

Asian indices fell by 0.7%. Treasuries rose, with the yield on 10-year bonds dropping by roughly two basis points to 4.32%. The yield on 30-year Japanese bonds rose by 10 basis points to 2.96% due to concerns that upper house election results this month could lead to increased fiscal spending. The dollar strengthened by 0.2%, metals fell, and the yuan weakened after Trump said that countries joining the BRICS group would face an additional 10% tariff. Futures on European stock indices remained unchanged.

Trade tensions are back in focus as investors await the outcomes of negotiations between different countries and the US ahead of the July 9 deadline. Economic battles are unfolding against a backdrop of unstable geopolitical conditions, fueling concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth and the disruption of established trade ties.

Key sectors of the economy that are most vulnerable to protectionist measures are coming into the spotlight. Steel, aluminum, agricultural producers, and companies involved in high-tech supply chains are under increased pressure. Against this backdrop, investors are closely watching the actions of governments and regulators, trying to assess the scale of potential damage and develop optimal strategies.

Last week, US indices rose to record highs, recovering from the April decline when large-scale tariffs were announced, fueled by expectations that the tariff period would be extended. Meanwhile, there is a sense of caution in the market. Volatility in certain countries may rise sharply as specific deals are either announced or not.

Administration officials previously indicated that August 1 would be the date higher tariffs come into force and hinted that some countries could be granted more time for negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that some countries might be offered a three-week extension to continue talks.

Meanwhile, oil continued to fall after OPEC+ agreed to a larger-than-expected production increase next month, sparking concerns about oversupply. Brent fell by 0.3% to $68.08 per barrel after a 0.7% drop on Friday.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P500:

The main objective for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance at $6,257. This would help signal growth and open the way for a surge to the new level of $6,267. An equally important priority for the bulls will be maintaining control over $6,276, which would strengthen buyers' positions.

If the price moves down amid weakening risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves near $6,245. A breakout below this quickly pushes the instrument back to $6,234 and opens the road to $6,223.