08.07.202512:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, the USD/CHF pair is under selling pressure, pulling back from the weekly high near the key psychological level of 0.8000. This decline is driven by a combination of negative factors.

First, deteriorating global risk sentiment is linked to renewed concerns over trade tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Published letters signaling plans to raise tariffs on several major economies and the threat of additional 10% tariffs on countries supporting the anti-American BRICS policy are dampening investor appetite for risk assets. This strengthens the Swiss franc's status as a safe-haven currency, putting pressure on the USD/CHF pair. In addition, some U.S. dollar selling is contributing to the pair's decline.

Despite these factors, downward potential for the dollar is limited by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates amid potential inflationary pressures due to rising import duties and a resilient U.S. labor market. This curbs aggressive bearish sentiment in the USD/CHF pair, helping to limit losses—especially in the absence of significant economic data.

Market participants are now focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes due Wednesday. These minutes are expected to provide insights into potential changes in Fed policy, which could have a strong impact on the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and provide momentum for the pair. Additionally, broader risk sentiment will continue to influence demand for the Swiss franc as a safe-haven asset.

From a technical standpoint, with oscillators on the daily chart still deep in negative territory, the pair currently lacks the strength to extend Monday's upward movement. The nearest resistance lies near the 0.8000 level. A break and consolidation above this level would open the door for further gains.