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28.07.202519:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The EU–US Deal Is a Disaster for the European Economy

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The euro quickly resumed its decline after a morning rally during Asian trading. Apparently, investors have come to realize that the trade deal between the EU and the US is not a victory, but a failure.Marine Le Pen, head of the parliamentary group of the French party National Rally, shared her opinion on the matter. According to her, the trade deal between the European Union and the United States is a complete failure from political, economic, and ethical standpoints.

Exchange Rates 28.07.2025 analysis

From a political perspective, Le Pen believes the failure lies in the loss of sovereignty of EU member states, which are forced to submit to the dictates of American corporations. She argues that such dependence undermines the democratic foundations of European politics and threatens France's national interests.

Economically, Le Pen claims the deal leads to the deindustrialization of Europe, as European companies cannot compete with cheaper American products. This results in job cuts, rising unemployment, and a decline in living standards.

From an ethical standpoint, Le Pen emphasizes that the deal encourages exploitation, environmental pollution, and disregard for social standards. She points out that American companies often rely on cheaper labor in developing countries and do not adhere to the same strict environmental regulations as European companies.

Le Pen stressed that the economic terms of this deal would never have been approved by Paris if the French government were guided by patriotic interests. "We will have to import gas and weapons from the US annually, worth hundreds of billions of euros. This means the complete surrender of French industry, as well as the loss of our energy and military sovereignty," said Le Pen. She also noted that certain provisions of the agreement place French farmers at a disadvantage, essentially sacrificing them for the benefit of German industry.

Le Pen's criticism goes beyond just the economic consequences. In her view, the agreement poses serious threats to the cultural identity of France and Europe as a whole. The flooding of the market with American goods, she says, displaces traditional European products, depriving consumers of the ability to choose local goods and support national producers. Moreover, the head of the parliamentary group expressed concern about the quality and safety standards of American products. She stressed that the weakening of European regulations to accommodate the agreement could lead to substandard goods entering the market, potentially harming citizens' health and safety.

As for the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1680 level. Only then will it be possible to target a test of 1.1705. From there, a climb to 1.1725 is possible, but doing so without support from large players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1755 high. In the event of a decline, I expect major buyers to become active only around the 1.1655 level. If no one steps in there, it would be wise to wait for a renewal of the 1.1630 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1610.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3430. Only then will it be possible to target 1.3450, above which a breakout will be rather difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3475 level. If the pair declines, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3400. If they succeed, a breakout below that range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3380 low, with a possible extension to 1.3350.

Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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