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The euro's trading range on Monday was 47 pips, and the day closed with a black (bearish) candlestick. The price failed to make a solid breakout above the balance indicator line. As expected, the market paused Friday's sharp movement.
Today, the euro may start moving in the opposite direction — downward — supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. business activity data and weak numbers from the eurozone. The eurozone services PMI for July is expected to rise from 50.5 to 51.2, but the composite PMI may decline from 52.0 to 51.0. In the U.S., the ISM Services PMI is expected to increase from 50.8 to 51.5, and the composite PMI forecast stands at 54.6 versus the previous 52.9.
The key task for the euro today is to close below yesterday's low. The target at 1.1495 also looks attractive. The Marlin oscillator has halted its upward movement and is now poised to decline.
On the H4 chart, the price is consolidating above the MACD line (1.1547). The Marlin oscillator is not yet showing any leading signals. The market is likely to continue sideways until the release of macroeconomic data. However, the longer the price stays sideways above the MACD line, the higher the probability of an upward spike. A firm move below 1.1547 would prepare the euro for a test of the 1.1495 level.
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