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The dollar weakened against the euro and the British pound following news that the U.S. ISM Services PMI came in worse than economists had expected, at 50.1 points. Economists' expectations were much higher. This has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as this fall.
Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data generally puts pressure on the dollar, as it makes U.S. assets less attractive for investment.
In the first half of the day, market attention will focus on industrial orders data from Germany and retail sales data from the Eurozone. These figures will serve as indicators of the European economy's condition and will influence future decisions by the European Central Bank regarding monetary policy.
Germany's industrial orders — from the Eurozone's largest economy — are a leading indicator reflecting future production activity. Growth in orders points to optimism in the manufacturing sector and may signal increased production and employment. Eurozone retail sales, on the other hand, reflect consumer sentiment and spending levels, which are key drivers of economic growth. A positive trend in retail sales indicates strengthening consumer confidence and willingness to spend. However, it's essential to understand that this data is published with a two-month delay, so its market impact may be limited.
As for the British pound, the PMI for the UK construction sector will be crucial in the first half of the day.
The PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is based on a survey of procurement managers in the construction sector. It measures activity levels, including new orders, employment, and pricing. A reading above 50 points signals growth in the industry, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The released data will be closely watched by economists and traders alike. Weak figures could lead to another drop in the GBP/USD pair.
If the data matches economists' expectations, it's better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferable.
Buying a breakout above 1.1594 may lead to a rise toward 1.1637 and 1.1664;
Selling a breakout below 1.1555 may lead to a drop toward 1.1518 and 1.1479.
Buying a breakout above 1.3325 may lead to a rise toward 1.3375 and 1.3422;
Selling a breakout below 1.3289 may lead to a fall toward 1.3255 and 1.3217.
Buying a breakout above 147.59 may push the dollar toward 147.93 and 148.23;
Selling a breakout below 147.32 may lead to a decline toward 146.90 and 146.65.
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1592, with a return below this level;
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1558, with a return back to this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3319, with a return below this level;
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3285, with a return back to this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6506, with a return below this level;
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6469, with a return back to this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3782, with a return below this level;
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3760, with a return back to this level.
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