21.08.202510:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair remains within the same range of the past three weeks, waiting for a new impulse to drive the next stage of movement.

Uncertainty regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike continues to pressure the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar, driven by reduced expectations of more aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in September, supports the USD/JPY pair.

However, the potential for further growth is limited due to diverging expectations regarding the policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan is expected to continue on its path of policy normalization, while the Fed plans to resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This creates certain barriers to significant growth of the USD/JPY pair, keeping prices confined within a narrow range.

It is also worth noting that in August, the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Japan rose to 49.9 from the final 48.9 in the previous month. Despite the increase, it has remained in contraction territory for the second consecutive month. This indicator did not have a significant impact on the USD/JPY pair. Similarly, the minutes of the Fed's July FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, did not trigger any reaction in USD/JPY.

The minutes indicated that most participants considered it appropriate to leave rates unchanged, emphasizing the need for more time to assess the impact of tariff increases on inflation. It was also noted that the effects of tariff measures have become more apparent, though their overall impact on the economy and inflation still needs to be fully evaluated.

This fundamental backdrop suggests waiting for stronger buying volumes before opening new long positions at the current stage.

As for today, traders seeking short-term opportunities should pay attention to the release of preliminary PMI data.

However, the main focus remains on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Powell is expected to present the Fed's new policy framework—the strategy it will use to achieve its inflation and employment goals—which will affect the movement of the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, the situation remains unchanged. The USD/JPY pair continues to trade within the same range, with support at the 100-day EMA, located at 147.00, and the nearest resistance at the psychological level of 148.00. Oscillators remain neutral.