25.08.202519:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on August 25th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test of 147.19 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, the pair did not manage to develop a significant decline.

In the second half of the day, only very weak U.S. new home sales data will put pressure on the dollar and lead to a decline in USD/JPY. Investors disappointed by weak housing figures are likely to further reduce their positions in dollar assets, which will weaken the U.S. currency against the yen. Disappointing new home sales may indicate slower economic growth in the U.S. and reduced consumer confidence. In such conditions, investors tend to seek refuge in safer assets, such as the Japanese yen.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point is reached around 147.50 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 147.90 (thicker green line on the chart). At 147.90, I will exit long positions and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level). A rise in the pair can be expected after strong U.S. data. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price at 147.24 is tested twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 147.50 and 147.90.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 147.24 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 146.84, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Selling pressure will return in case of weak U.S. statistics. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price at 147.50 is tested twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 147.24 and 146.84 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or fixing profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or fixing profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.