26.08.202519:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair posted gains. The strengthening is linked to challenges facing the U.S. dollar, stemming from concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. In his morning social media post, Trump announced Cook's dismissal from the Fed's Board of Governors. However, Cook stated she would not resign, arguing that there were no grounds for her removal. "I will continue to carry out my duties," she added.

Additionally, according to Reuters, Trump warned of the possibility of imposing 200% tariffs on Chinese goods if China refuses to supply magnets to the United States. Bloomberg further reported that Trump threatened "subsequent additional tariffs" and export restrictions on advanced technologies and semiconductors in response to digital services taxes that have negatively affected U.S. tech companies.

The EUR/USD pair is supported by signals from the European Central Bank indicating a pause in monetary policy easing amid improving labor market conditions in the eurozone. At the same time, details of the EU-U.S. trade agreement suggest that most European goods will face 15% tariffs, while automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors may be exempt from higher U.S. duties.

From a technical perspective, with prices still below the 9-day EMA, the positive momentum remains weak. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has yet to move into positive territory. Immediate support is at 1.1616, which helps the pair hold above the key 1.1600 level. Resistance is at 1.1650. A break above this level would accelerate the move toward the 1.1700 round level.