09.09.202512:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the GBP/JPY pair is under pressure, continuing to retreat from the high reached in July 2024. The weakening of the pair is linked to the overall strengthening of the Japanese yen, which has pushed the spot price down toward the psychological 199.00 level.

The market's initial reaction to the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba quickly faded amid growing expectations of further monetary policy normalization by the Bank of Japan. This is supported by the upward revision of second-quarter GDP growth data released on Monday. In addition, rising household spending and positive real wage dynamics in Japan strengthen expectations of a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan by year-end, which supports the yen and pressures the GBP/JPY cross.

At the same time, the British pound is supported by the ongoing decline of the U.S. dollar.

It was also reported today that like-for-like retail sales in the UK rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, exceeding July's 1.8% and the market forecast of 2%. This figure is the highest in four months and, along with the Bank of England's cautious approach to rate cuts, helps the pound remain supported, limiting potential losses in GBP/JPY.

However, lingering uncertainty over the upcoming autumn budget in November may deter traders from aggressively buying the pound, restraining intraday growth. Fundamentally, it suggests that a decisive break below the 199.00 psychological level is needed before confirming that the pair has peaked.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart have not yet turned negative, and the 199.00 psychological level is holding prices from a broader decline. Below this level, prices would find support at the 50-day SMA near 198.40, with further support at the 198.00 psychological level.

On the other hand, resistance lies at the 200.00 psychological level, above which is the September high, last observed in July 2024, around 200.35.