10.09.202517:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – September 10th

Only the euro was traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade anything with Momentum.

Italian industrial data provided some encouragement, allowing euro buyers to maintain a leading position. This positive impulse from Italy somewhat eased concerns about difficulties in the industrial sector. However, one should not forget that Italy's economic problems have not disappeared. Success in the manufacturing sector is a good sign, but it is not enough on its own to fundamentally change the situation.

In the second half of the day, data is expected on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, the core Producer Price Index excluding food and energy prices, as well as changes in wholesale inventories. These releases will be among the key indicators of inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy and will determine the further trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Special attention will be paid to the core Producer Price Index, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy. Its dynamics will allow for a more accurate assessment of the persistence of inflationary processes and their impact on final consumer prices. The change in wholesale inventories, in turn, will provide information on the state of supply and demand across various markets.

In the case of strong statistics, I will rely on implementing the Momentum strategy. If the market shows no reaction to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1728 may lead to growth toward 1.1760 and 1.1815;
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1690 may lead to a decline toward 1.1665 and 1.1634.

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3553 may lead to growth toward 1.3587 and 1.3615;
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3519 may lead to a decline toward 1.3484 and 1.3451.

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout of 147.72 may lead to growth toward 148.03 and 148.44;
• Selling on a breakout of 147.39 may lead to declines toward 146.98 and 146.66.

Mean Reversion strategy (reversal) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1729 with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1684 with a return to this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3552 with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3508 with a return to this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6629 with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6595 with a return to this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3865 with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3832 with a return to this level.