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The first test of the 1.3646 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move up from the zero mark, confirming this as the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose, stopping just short of the 1.3671 target.
UK labor market data kept demand for the pound healthy in the first half of the day, after which dollar weakness returned. Despite the lack of strong positives in the published data, the mere resilience of the UK labor market—contrary to some analysts' expectations—supported the national currency. Investors who feared a sharp deterioration got a signal that the UK economy is perhaps more resilient to external shocks than previously thought.
Today, the pound's dynamics will be influenced by UK Consumer Price Index data and its core value. Economists forecast increases in both, which could have a significant effect on Bank of England policy and the value of the pound. If the CPI comes in above expectations, this will likely strengthen the case for a more restrictive BoE stance—this could bolster the pound. Conversely, lower-than-expected inflation readings may reduce pressure on the central bank, leading to a softer pound. The core CPI (stripping out the volatility of food and energy prices) gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. Faster core CPI growth compared to the headline figure may signal deeper problems with inflation in the UK economy.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point near 1.3650 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3671 (thicker green line). Around 1.3671, I'll exit longs and open shorts on the reversal (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction). Strong pound rallies can be expected if the uptrend continues. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD is above zero and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3631 price while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside and lead to an upward reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.3650 and 1.3671 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakdown below 1.3631 (red line on the chart), which should cause a quick decline. Sellers' main target will be 1.3612, where I'll exit shorts and immediately buy on a reversal (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction). Pound sellers are unlikely to be very active in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I'll also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3650 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will cap the upside and lead to a reversal downward, targeting 1.3631 and 1.3612.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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