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At first glance, it may seem logical that the euro should be falling due to the political crisis in France. However, in my opinion, this is not such an important event. The French government has not been dissolved, and replacing prime ministers or resigning from office is not prohibited. For example, why didn't the market react as strongly to the resignation of Adriana Kugler from the Fed or Erika McEntarfer from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics? In my view, these departures are much more significant than yet another change of prime minister in France.
It is worth remembering that in the foreign exchange market, the fate of many currencies depends precisely on the dollar. The dollar rose for nearly two decades simply because it was rising. Today, the euro, the pound, and other currencies are increasing not because they are fundamentally strong, but because the dollar is weakening. Of course, the euro and the pound show some independence, but the dollar remains the backbone of the global financial system. And the Fed, with its ability to influence the dollar, remains the world's most important central bank—even though, strictly speaking, it is not a central bank, but an independent institution performing central bank functions.
Given all of the above, I find it strange to see the euro declining if the U.S. news background remains negative and the wave structure points to the continuation of an upward trend. The U.S. government shutdown has far more importance for the dollar (and therefore for the euro as well) than the French crisis, which will end sooner or later.
That is why I am beginning to wonder whether the ECB has started conducting hidden currency interventions aimed at weakening the euro. It is no secret that many central banks around the world (especially those in export-driven economies) benefit from a weaker national currency. The lower the exchange rate, the higher the demand for their exported goods and services abroad. The European Union is no exception. For instance, the Swiss National Bank has already begun interventions to counteract the rapidly appreciating franc. It is entirely possible that the ECB has also started selling euros or buying dollars in order to increase the supply of the former and reduce the supply of the latter. Meanwhile, many around the world are left wondering why the dollar is rising in 2025, when it had only been declining throughout the year.
Wave Pattern for EUR/USD: Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the foreign and domestic policies of the new White House Administration. The targets for the current segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At present, corrective wave 4 is unfolding, and it may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains valid. Therefore, in the near term, I am only considering buying opportunities. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to the 1.2245 level, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment, but its internal wave structure has become unreadable. If wave 4 takes on a complex three-wave form, the structure will normalize, but in this case, wave 4 will turn out to be much more complex and longer than wave 2. In my opinion, it is best to use the 1.3341 level as a reference point, which corresponds to 127.2% on the Fibonacci scale. Two failed attempts to break through this level indicated the market's readiness for new buying. The instrument's targets still remain no lower than the 1.38 level.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
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