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The GBP/USD currency pair unexpectedly began to rise on Thursday. The key event of the day was the Bank of England meeting, which was considered "a bit more dovish" than anticipated. More committee members voted for a rate cut than was forecasted. Thus, it can be assumed that the rate will definitely be lowered at the next meeting. However, this is just a speculation as of early November, and the next meeting of the BoE will take place at the end of December.
Nevertheless, the market, which had been actively shedding the British pound in recent weeks for various reasons, had grounds for new sales yesterday. Yet, on the very day when there were justifiable grounds, the market chose not to act on them. Illogical movements persist, and the decline of the British currency cannot yet be considered complete. If the pair securely surpasses the area of 1.3086-1.3115, then we can talk about growth at least towards the level of 1.3212 and the Senkou Span B line, near which the descending trend line also lies. There, the further fate of the British pound will be determined.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the first good buy signal formed during the night, but at the opening of the European trading session, the price remained around 1.3050. Thus, a long position could have been opened. The remainder of the day saw the pair rise, but it failed to break through the level of 1.3115. A rebound from this level allowed for closing long positions with a profit of about 45 pips. We are currently hesitant to consider sell signals, as the pound has been falling for too long and with too little justification.
COT reports on the British pound show that sentiment among commercial traders has been changing frequently in recent years. The red and blue lines, reflecting the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often cross and are generally close to the zero mark. Right now, they are nearly at the same level, indicating an approximately equal number of buy and sell positions.
The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so, in principle, market makers' demand for the British pound is not particularly significant at the moment. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will, in any case, lower rates in the coming year. Demand for the dollar will decline one way or another. According to the last report (from September 23) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated, and there are no newer reports.
In 2025, the pound rose sharply, and the reason is clear: Donald Trump's policies. Once this reason is neutralized, the dollar may start to rise, but no one knows when this will happen. It does not matter how quickly the net position for the pound is growing or falling. The net position for the dollar is declining anyway and, as a rule, at a faster pace.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. The dollar still lacks global reasons to strengthen, so we expect the pair to rise to the highs of 2025 in virtually any case. At the moment, the pair may break through a critical line, which is already a feat for it. If the level of 1.3115 is surpassed, the chances of continued growth will increase exponentially, even without a fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop.
For November 7, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3115, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3240) and Kijun-sen (1.3086) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
No interesting events are scheduled in the UK on Friday, while in the USA, only one consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan will be released. It may provoke a slight reaction in the absence of more significant events.
Today, traders may conduct trading from the level of 1.3115. We consider short positions to be currently irrelevant. Long positions can be opened upon consolidation above 1.3115, with a target of 1.3212.
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