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The test of the price level at 1.1736 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.
Statements from Federal Reserve officials at the end of last week did not support the US dollar, leaving the euro well-positioned for further gains. Overcoming significant resistance levels will allow the upward trend to continue today, as the overall picture suggests favorable conditions for further strengthening of risk assets.
Today, fresh data on the German wholesale price index and information on changes in industrial production volumes in the Eurozone for October will be released in the first half of the day. Data on industrial production is important for understanding the region's overall economic health. An increase in industrial production volumes will indicate an improvement in the Eurozone's economic situation, while a decrease will signal a slowdown in growth. Both indicators will be compared with analyst forecasts, and noticeable deviations may prompt fluctuations in the currency market. Traders will look for confirmation or refutation of current trends in the Eurozone's economy, and if positive dynamics persist, euro purchases may continue.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when it reaches around 1.1745 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1769. At point 1.1769, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting growth for the euro can only occur after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1727 price level occur while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1645 and 1.1769 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1727 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1701, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from that level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of the price level at 1.1745 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1727 and 1.1701 can be anticipated.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.
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