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Pressure on the U.S. currency remains, and the market continues to expect very active measures from the Federal Reserve in 2026. At the very least, the current state of the U.S. labor market suggests that these expectations are not unfounded. The latest reports for November showed that the labor market may have stopped "cooling," but this is a highly debatable claim. Let me remind you that the Nonfarm Payrolls report is quite specific, and not all traders interpret it correctly.
It should be understood that the number of newly created jobs is not equal to the net increase in employment in the economy. Every month, hundreds of thousands of Americans lose their jobs, quit, companies close and open, new employees are hired, and so on. Nonfarm Payrolls only signals newly created jobs and does not take into account the number of layoffs and job losses. Consequently, even a high payrolls reading does not mean that the total number of workers in the U.S. has increased. If, over the same period, layoffs exceeded the number of newly created jobs, this represents a decline rather than a gain in the labor force.
It should also be understood that the Nonfarm Payrolls report does not account for, for example, the self-employed or freelancers. In recent decades, an entire profession of "blogger" has emerged, and it is obvious that all these people earn money but are not officially employed anywhere. The report does not take them into account. It also does not include self-employed freelancers who receive orders through relevant platforms and are likewise not counted. Therefore, overall, it can be said that the Nonfarm Payrolls report is not the most accurate measure of the labor market's condition, and its figures should be interpreted correctly.
In November, 60 thousand jobs were created in the United States, and this figure is negative. This is because, over the same period, layoffs were almost certainly far higher than 60 thousand. On average, 100–200 thousand workers lose their jobs in the U.S. every month, so the payrolls figure should be at least 100 thousand just to be considered neutral.
Based on all of the above, I cannot say that the U.S. labor market has begun to recover. The current situation will be clarified by the reports due next week, but the easing of the Fed's monetary policy should continue in 2026. In January, the market does not expect a new round of interest rate cuts, but more definitive conclusions can be drawn next week.
Wave picture for EUR/USD:
Based on the EUR/USD analysis conducted, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors behind the long-term decline of the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend as far as the 25th level. The current upward wave sequence may not be complete yet, but three waves have already been formed. If it develops further, growth should be expected with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, which correspond to the 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci levels. However, a corrective wave or a set of corrective waves may form in the near term.
The wave picture of the GBP/USD pair has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e within wave C of wave 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume, with initial targets around the 38th and 40th levels.
In the short term, I expected the formation of wave 3 or c with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c has presumably completed its formation, so in the near future a downward wave or a set of waves may develop.
Core principles of my analysis:
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