08.01.202610:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: German factory orders jump

A sharp rise in German factory orders went largely unnoticed by traders, allowing EUR/USD to remain near 1.1680.

Data showed that in November 2025, order volume for Germany's manufacturing sector unexpectedly increased, signaling an initial recovery in Europe's largest economy. Demand jumped 5.6% month?on?month, the largest gain in a year.

The figures offer cautious optimism after recent signs of stagnation in the German economy. A rise in orders, particularly from abroad, suggests that German firms have begun to adapt to difficult global trade conditions, including energy?price volatility and geopolitical tensions.

The machinery and equipment sector made a significant contribution. Higher orders in that segment indicate companies may be resuming investment in modernization and capacity expansion, which could boost competitiveness over the long term. Although the surge was driven in part by large individual contracts, the statistical office reported a 0.7% increase even when those orders were excluded.

The sharp jump followed two solid monthly gains that had raised hopes that manufacturing activity was picking up. Economists had expected a 1% decline.

However, automakers continue to struggle amid Chinese competition and US tariffs. Economists forecast the loss of about 100,000 jobs in the sector by the end of the decade. Rising defense and industrial spending will offset only a portion of those losses.

The delayed November report and the persistent challenges facing the eurozone's flagship economy appear to have tempered market reaction, leading traders to largely ignore the data.

According to a technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair, buyers should consider reclaiming the 1.1700 level. That would open the way to test 1.1720. From there, a move to 1.1740 would be possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players could be difficult. The extended target is 1.1765. On a decline, look for meaningful buying interest near 1.1665. If no buyers appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1640 or to open long positions from 1.1616.

As for the GBP/USD pair, buyers should target the nearest resistance at 1.3460. That would allow a move toward 1.3488, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is around 1.3514. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control at 1.3435. A break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3414, with scope to extend to 1.3387.