Zostať 
Podmienky obchodovania
Nástroje
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to decline on Thursday and consolidated below the support level of 1.3437–1.3470, which allows for a continuation of the decline toward the next support level at 1.3352–1.3362. However, the bullish trend has not yet been canceled, as prices have not consolidated below the 1.3403 level.
The wave structure remains bullish. The most recently completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. The news background for the British pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the information environment in the United States also leaves much to be desired. Bears have been active over the past few days, but a breakdown of the bullish trend will occur only below the 1.3403 level.
There was virtually no news background on Thursday, aside from the U.S. report on initial jobless claims. The figure matched traders' expectations, so it had no impact and could not have influenced the market. Today, the pound begins the day with another decline, but in just a few hours the U.S. will release critical reports for the dollar—Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. These reports will determine the outcome of the FOMC meeting at the end of January and may determine the fate of the dollar today.
In my view, the U.S. dollar has shown unjustified movement over the past few days, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the JOLTS job openings report, and the ADP employment reports all came in worse than forecasts. The only positive factor for the dollar was the ISM Services PMI. Market expectations for U.S. data are low. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected in the range of 45–60 thousand (lower than the previous month), while the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.6%. Thus, the dollar faces its third test this week. It passed the first and did not show up for the second.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would again favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3795. A consolidation below the 1.3369–1.3435 level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the support level of 1.3118–1.3140. No emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became more bullish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,572, while the number of short positions decreased by 5,727. The gap between long and short positions is now approximately 63,000 vs. 105,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, but the pound appears to have exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.
In my opinion, the pound still looks less risky than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency may periodically enjoy demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve has been forced to ease monetary policy to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at this point no one can be certain that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more dovish one during the year.
U.S. and UK Economic Calendar
On January 9, the economic calendar contains six entries, all from the United States, two of which are extremely important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be felt in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice
Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.3526–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3470. The target was achieved. New selling opportunities emerged after a close below the 1.3437–1.3470 level, with a target at 1.3352–1.3362. Today, buying can be considered on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 support level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3437–1.3470.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.
