13.01.202615:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: jednoduché obchodné tipy pre začiatočníkov na 13. januára (americká seansa)

Analýza obchodov a tipy na obchodovanie s britskou librou

The test of the 1.3476 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upwards from the zero line, which confirmed it as the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 7 points, and the bullish potential was exhausted.

The speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey did not significantly affect the British pound or support continued growth. Traders had expected clearer signals from the BoE chief regarding the future direction of monetary policy, but Bailey chose to maintain a neutral stance, offering no hints of either a rate hike or a rate cut. This cautious approach likely prompted market participants to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, which was reflected in the pound's price action.

Now, market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of US inflation data, as it may provide insight into the future path of Federal Reserve monetary policy. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes in higher than expected, it could strengthen the case for more aggressive interest rate maintenance, which would support the US dollar.

US new home sales will also be closely monitored, as they are a key indicator of the housing market and overall economic activity. The data is expected to show how high interest rates and concerns over slowing economic growth are affecting demand for housing. Stronger-than-expected figures could signal resilience in the housing sector, while weaker data might increase fears of a broader economic slowdown. Additionally, a speech from FOMC member Alberto Musalem will draw attention, as investors will be looking for any clues on his views regarding the state of the economy and the likely trajectory of interest rates.

Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.

Nákupný signál

Scenario No. 1:

I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the 1.3481 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting a move to the 1.3512 level (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3512, I will exit the buy positions and consider opening sell positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move back from the entry level. You can expect the pound to rise today only after a drop in US inflation.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3464 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a market reversal to the upside. Expect a move toward the opposite levels of 1.3481 and 1.3512.

Predajný signál

Scenario No. 1:

I plan to sell the pound today after the price updates to the 1.3464 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3434 level, where I will exit the sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move back. Pressure on the pound could return today if US inflation rises.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3481 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.3464 and 1.3434 can be expected.

Vysvetlivky ku grafu:

• Tenká zelená čiara ‒ vstupná cena, za ktorú môžete kúpiť obchodný nástroj.
• Hrubá zelená čiara ‒ odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, pretože ďalší rast nad túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
• Tenká červená čiara ‒ vstupná cena, pri ktorej môžete obchodný nástroj predať.
• Hrubá červená čiara ‒ odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, keďže ďalší pokles pod túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
• Indikátor MACD ‒ dôležitý pri identifikácii prekúpených a prepredaných zón s cieľom urobiť rozhodnutie o vstupe na trh.

Dôležité poznámky pre začínajúcich obchodníkov:

Začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.

Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.