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The wave situation has shifted to a bearish one. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the information background in the US is even worse. Nevertheless, bears have continued attacking in recent days, which raises some questions about the regularity of the US dollar's strengthening.
The news background on Friday was very weak. The US industrial production report provided slight support to the dollar, but overall in 2026 only bears are attacking, often without solid reasons. Trader activity remains low, and today, Monday, only one question should be asked: is a new round of global US dollar weakening beginning? I remind you that last year the dollar began to fall as soon as Donald Trump became president. The American leader immediately announced trade tariffs that would be imposed on countries around the world that had "profited from the US for years." Later, Trump moved from words to actions. The year 2026 is starting with new tariffs, military operations, and Trump's threats of criminal prosecution against Jerome Powell. In my view, the market may come to the same conclusions in January 2026 as it did in January 2025. I believe the dollar still lacks an informational basis for long-term growth. The fact that the dollar has been trading relatively steadily in recent months looks like a miracle. The market is patient and does not like to make hasty decisions. But any patience eventually runs out.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would once again favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward the next 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. A consolidation below the 1.3369–1.3435 level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a decline toward the support level of 1.3118–1.3140. No emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the non-commercial trader category became more bullish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 2,517, while the number of short positions decreased by 2,751. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 79,000 versus 104,000, and it is narrowing rapidly. Bears have dominated in recent months, but the pound appears to have already exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro currency contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.
In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency may enjoy demand from time to time. But not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. US military aggression also does not add optimism for dollar bulls.
News Calendar for the US and the UK:
On January 19, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair is possible today if it closes below the 1.3352–1.3362 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3294. Buy positions could be opened on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3437–1.3470. Today, these trades may be kept open.
Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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