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Bitcoin has lost more than 50% since October of last year and generally shows no signs of the downtrend ending. There are no bullish patterns, no break of the downward structure, and none is expected in the near term. As we have said before, the crypto community is currently divided into two camps: those who actually trade and analyze, and those who constantly forecast rallies — in other words, traders vs. hodlers/optimists.
Analysts at one of the world's largest banks, JPMorgan, for example, said that Bitcoin could reach $266,000 in the long run. That forecast illustrates the pointlessness of such long?term calls for traders. Before hitting $266,000, Bitcoin could fall to $20,000. Which trader is prepared to withstand such drawdowns? Who could ride that out, given that the events of October 10–11 last year showed that even a relatively modest crash wiped out a huge number of traders?
For spot buyers, such targets may be useful — but only if you are prepared to wait years for the Holy grail. We speak mainly about trading here, so we cannot support a bullish call on BTC even toward $80,000 at this time.
JPMorgan also noted that Bitcoin is becoming more attractive than gold. Its analysts said the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold has fallen to 1.5, a historical low. That, they argue, makes Bitcoin much more appealing to investors and more promising.
Bitcoin continues to form a full?fledged downtrend. We still expect a fall toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal or a corrective rally. On the daily TF (timeframe) POI sell areas, note the latest bearish FVG, which is still far from current prices. The decline could resume even without touching the nearest POI area.
On the daily TF, a downtrend continues to build. The key sell pattern has been, and remains, the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and long?lasting. Since that pattern formed, Ethereum has already fallen about 55% (roughly $2,500). A short?term corrective bounce is possible. Local long trades can be attempted using bullish patterns on the 4?hour TF, but we would not recommend taking long positions into a strong downtrend. At the moment, there is hardly even a correction — what we have seen in recent days is merely a buyback. In the medium term, we expect the daily bearish patterns to play out and the downtrend to resume.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side. OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market-maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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