10.02.202620:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold is pulling back from yesterday's high, yet it remains above the round 5000 level.

The results of the snap elections in Japan held on Sunday have removed political uncertainty, which, combined with easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to support positive market sentiment. This has become a key factor creating downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal.

Indirect talks between the United States and Iran regarding the future of Iran's nuclear program concluded on Friday with a broad agreement to maintain a diplomatic approach. This has reduced fears of an escalation of military confrontation in the Middle East and supported investor confidence. Against this backdrop, positive market sentiment persists, triggering capital outflows from safe-haven assets, including gold.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the eight-hour round of talks as a good start conducted in a constructive and favorable atmosphere. U.S. President Donald Trump, in turn, called the dialogue very successful and confirmed that another meeting is scheduled for early this week.

At the same time, concerns about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve have intensified after Trump stated on Saturday that he might file a lawsuit against newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh if the latter refuses to cut interest rates. Additional pressure came from comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who on Thursday did not rule out a potential criminal investigation into Warsh should he ultimately fail to move toward easing monetary policy.

All of this is unfolding amid a growing consensus that the Fed will cut borrowing costs two more times this year, with the first rate cut expected as early as June. This is pushing the U.S. dollar toward levels last seen in 2022.

The market is now focused on a set of key U.S. macroeconomic data to clarify the future trajectory of the Fed's policy easing.

From a technical perspective, daily-chart oscillators remain positive, confirming a bullish outlook. Prices continue to trade above the round 5000 level and above all moving averages, despite the pullback from yesterday's high. Once prices break above the round 5100 level, they will open the way toward a record high. If prices fail to hold above the round 5000 level and the 20-day SMA, gold will accelerate its decline toward the February low.