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For Europe, the question of Ukraine remains extremely important. The war between Ukraine and Russia has lasted four full years, and under Donald Trump's leadership, America has effectively distanced itself from any support for Kyiv. As a result, the burden of supporting Ukraine has largely fallen on the European Union. In his latest speech, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not mention Ukraine, Russia or NATO, instead criticizing the political course of the European Union. Brussels considers Russia a serious threat to its own security, which makes this issue a top priority for them.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called on Europe to rely solely on its own resources and has urged the restructuring of the "Western alliance." Starmer proposes creating a new defense initiative to coordinate arms purchases and reduce defense spending. Friedrich Merz (Chancellor of Germany), Emmanuel Macron (President of France), and Starmer have concluded that there is a need to build a self-sufficient defense system for Europe that would not be compromised if the U.S. refuses to protect Europe. "We cannot guarantee the security of the European Union under the current relations with NATO and the U.S. America may continue to distance itself, and it is time for us to consider creating our own defense, independent of NATO partners," said Merz.
The key question for the EU is whether it can independently develop new armament systems in the coming years, replenish its own stockpiles of weapons and equipment for potential conflicts, coordinate efforts among all member countries of the Union, and produce a sufficient number of medium and long-range missiles.
One way or another, the groundwork has been laid—Europe will build its own defense system independent of NATO. Simultaneously, the process of the global economy's dedollarization is ongoing, also a result of Trump's actions. In general, I understand the skepticism many investors have toward American assets. Trump has turned half the world against him, and friendly relations also mean a lot in modern politics and geopolitics. For instance, I can no longer consider Canada a friend of the U.S., even though it remained so for decades, especially after Trump decided to impose tariffs and propose its annexation.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build an upward phase of the trend. The policies of Trump and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may reach up to 25,000. At this moment, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of a global wave 5, so I expect prices to rise in the first half of 2026. However, in the near future, the instrument may construct another downward wave within the correction. I consider it sensible to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets around the marks of 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to the 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.
The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that in the near future, we may observe the construction of a corrective set of waves, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities for new purchases. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-1.50. Trump himself welcomes the decline of the dollar, and the Fed has the opportunity to lower rates again at the next meeting.
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