20.02.202612:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – February 20th

Today, the euro and the British pound performed very well using the Mean Reversion strategy. Through the Momentum strategy, I traded the Japanese yen.

Today's U.S. session is packed with important economic indicators that could significantly influence market sentiment. Special attention from traders and analysts is focused on U.S. GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2025. The report is expected to show weak economic growth at the end of last year, providing a clear picture of the current state of the national economy.

Another key indicator will be the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This measure is one of the Federal Reserve's primary gauges for assessing inflation and making monetary policy decisions. Any deviation from forecasts could trigger increased volatility. In addition, business activity indices will be in focus. Data from the manufacturing and services sectors will help assess the condition of key areas of the U.S. economy. Positive dynamics in these indices would signal stable growth and a favorable business climate, while negative trends could point to emerging problems.

Data on U.S. new home sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index may also impact the U.S. dollar. As indicators of consumer sector health and construction industry dynamics, these metrics serve as important signals for traders and analysts.

An increase in new home sales—especially if it exceeds expectations—indicates rising consumer confidence and willingness to make major purchases, which generally supports the economy and the U.S. dollar. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index directly measures households' psychological assessment of the current and future economic situation. A high reading signals optimism, which may lead to increased consumer spending, investment, and overall economic activity—potentially strengthening the dollar against a range of risk assets.

If the data comes out strong, I will rely on implementing the Momentum strategy. If the market shows no reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1770 may lead to a rise toward 1.1790 and 1.1818;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1745 may lead to a decline toward 1.1719 and 1.1697.

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3475 may lead to a rise toward 1.3515 and 1.3545;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3445 may lead to a decline toward 1.3420 and 1.3400.

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 155.67 may lead to a rise toward 156.07 and 156.43;
• Selling on a breakout below 155.30 may lead to a decline toward 154.95 and 154.60.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1775 with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1742 with a return to this level.

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3485 with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3435 with a return to this level.

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.7076 with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.7050 with a return to this level.

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3701 with a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3675 with a return to this level.