24.02.202618:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is holding below the round level of 1.1800, while pressure on the U.S. dollar persists amid growing uncertainty surrounding American tariffs.

Last Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a significant portion of the tariffs previously imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Trump has shown no willingness to abandon his key economic agenda. The administration has already announced plans to introduce a new 15% tariff on Saturday, heightening market nervousness, putting pressure on the U.S. currency, and increasing volatility.

Against this backdrop, the head of the European Parliament's trade committee noted that the European Union (EU) may freeze the ratification process of a trade agreement with the United States until more detailed information is received from Washington regarding Trump's trade policy. The uncertainty surrounding trade agreements with the U.S. is creating additional pressure on the dollar and supporting demand for the major currency pair.

On Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank must remain flexible in conducting monetary policy, even though it is currently in a relatively "good position." Lagarde confirmed that interest rate decisions will be made "at every meeting" depending on incoming data, while the overall balance of risks, in her assessment, remains "broadly balanced."

On Friday, the key market driver will be U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, as it may provide signals regarding the future trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rates. The consensus forecast among economists suggests a slowdown in January PPI inflation compared to the previous month. However, stronger-than-expected figures could provide additional short-term support to the U.S. dollar.

From a technical perspective, bearish traders are currently awaiting a confident breakout and consolidation below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), or the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the January low, following the rebound from the technically important 200-day SMA tested in January. Next comes last week's low around 1.1745–1.1740, a break of which could resume the corrective decline of EUR/USD from the January high.

However, the MACD histogram has not yet moved deeper into negative territory, indicating that although bulls are under pressure, they are still resisting the bears. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already in negative territory, reflecting bullish weakness. As a result, a further decline toward the round level of 1.1700 — the 23.6% Fibonacci level — and even toward the 100-day SMA appears quite possible.

Nevertheless, the 200-day moving average continues to show a moderate upward slope, underscoring a favorable long-term outlook. The EUR/USD pair remains above this moving average, preserving the foundation of the broader trend.

The table below typically shows the percentage change of the U.S. dollar against major global currencies for the current date, with the strongest appreciation of the American currency observed against the Japanese yen.