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The USD/JPY pair is trying to attract buyers below the 158.00 round level after the revision of Japan's fourth-quarter GDP growth data. The Cabinet Office reported that the economy expanded 1.3% year-on-year in the October–December period, compared with the initial estimate of 0.2%. Quarterly figures were also revised higher to +0.3%, from the preliminary +0.1%.
This strengthens speculation about possible intervention by authorities to limit further weakening of the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump noted on Monday that the U.S.–Israel war with Iran could end in the near future, boosting investor confidence. Such signals weaken the dominant role of the U.S. dollar in the USD/JPY pair, adding pressure to it.
However, yen buyers are still avoiding aggressive positions due to risks of oil supply disruptions amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Japan, as one of the world's largest importers of energy resources, is vulnerable to spikes in energy prices, which would negatively affect its trade balance and economic outlook. Moreover, sustained growth in oil prices could trigger inflation, creating a stagflationary environment and complicating the normalization of the Bank of Japan's policy. This, in turn, may restrain significant strengthening of the Japanese yen and help limit the decline of the USD/JPY pair.
Therefore, it would be prudent for bears to wait for a strong selling impulse before confirming that prices have reached their peak.
Special attention should still be focused on geopolitical developments, which will play an important role in shaping oil price dynamics and determining the overall risk sentiment.
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, indicating an advantage for the bulls. Prices are trading above all moving averages near the 158.00 round level, which now acts as resistance. If this level is broken again, the pair could challenge the March high. A corrective pullback may take the pair toward the 9-day EMA ahead of the 157.00 round level.
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