10.03.202608:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Price Analysis and Forecast. Geopolitical Risks Attract Capital Flows into Safe-Haven Assets

Gold continues to rebound from the psychological level of $5,000 per ounce. Iranian authorities rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's statements about the imminent end of the Middle Eastern conflict as baseless, warning that regional security is achievable only for all or for none. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) emphasized that Tehran, not Washington, will dictate the outcome of the war, which continues to heighten geopolitical tensions and stoke interest in the precious metal as a classic safe-haven asset.

Oil prices are resuming their ascent following yesterday's sharp reversal from the highest levels since June 2022, amid supply disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors fear that rising energy prices will inflate inflation and compel the Federal Reserve to postpone easing monetary policy. This strengthens U.S. Treasury yields, allowing the dollar to halt its retreat from three-month highs.

The mixed news backdrop necessitates caution before opening aggressive long positions in gold, as upcoming U.S. inflation data may provide a new impetus. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Friday, setting the tone for expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts and demand for the dollar, which will impact gold. However, the primary focus remains on the developments of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

From a technical perspective, resistance is at $5,200, while support is at $5,100. Oscillators are positive, providing bulls with a chance to break through. If prices fail to hold the $5,100 level, they may accelerate the decline toward the psychological $5,000 level.