10.03.202609:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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In February, the People's Bank of China continued to build up its gold reserves for the 16th month in a row, despite geopolitical tensions that kept gold prices near January's record levels. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), an additional 30,000 troy ounces were added last month, bringing total reserves to 74.2 million ounces (~2,308 tons), valued at about $387.6 billion. Since November 2024, the increase has exceeded 1.4 million ounces.

By the end of February, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.4 trillion, which is $8.7 billion more than in January, marking the seventh consecutive monthly increase. SAFE explained the rise by exchange-rate conversion effects and higher asset prices amid the strength of the U.S. Dollar Index.

The People's Bank of China regularly appears in gold-related news. At the end of December, reports surfaced about a record purchase from Russia worth $961 million in November 2025, the largest in the history of their trade. This was the second consecutive month with deliveries exceeding $900 million; in October the figure was $930 million. October–November accounted for almost the entire annual import volume: $1.9 billion for January–November, compared with $223 million a year earlier, an almost ninefold increase.

Such a surge reflects China's strategy to diversify its reserves and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. While the official figures are impressive, the real volumes could be significantly higher. Since mid-2022, this would imply an increase of more than 1,080 tons.

These rapid gold purchases by China are encouraging another rise in the price of the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, $5,200 acts as resistance, while $5,100 serves as support. Oscillators are positive, so bulls still have a chance to break higher. However, if prices fail to hold the $5,100 level, the decline could accelerate toward the psychological level of $5,000.

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