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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell on Thursday to the support level of 1.3341–1.3352, and during the night on Friday it consolidated below it. Thus, the decline in quotes continues toward the next support level of 1.3199–1.3214. A rebound of the pair from this zone would favor the British currency and some upward movement, while consolidation below it would increase the probability of further decline toward the 1.3139 level.
The wave situation briefly shifted to a bullish one for just a couple of days. The latest collapse of the pound once again changed the trend to bearish. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, but the new downward wave also broke the previous low. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, while geopolitics has given bears a full advantage in the market. The war in Iran remains the main reason for the growth of the U.S. currency, and bullish traders do not see clear timeframes for the end of the conflict.
The news background on Thursday was fairly weak, but geopolitics continued to push the pound downward. On Friday, bearish attacks continued with renewed strength, although no major news had yet been released. The economic background continues to be ignored by traders, while geopolitics alone is enough for the dollar to show steady growth. Therefore, it is extremely difficult at the moment to estimate how far the pound's decline may continue. Traders are best advised to follow the trend rather than try to guess its reversal or end. Several important reports will be released in the U.S. today, including fourth-quarter GDP. In the preliminary estimate, we learned that GDP growth slowed to 1.4%, but the second and third estimates may differ from the first. I would also note that traders are unlikely to react today to any GDP figure or other important reports. Bears showed from early morning that they are not waiting for statistics to continue their offensive.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the upper boundary of the downward trend channel, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and resumed its decline toward the 1.3145 corrective level. Closing quotes above the descending channel would allow traders to expect the end of the bearish trend and growth toward the Fibonacci level of 0.0% – 1.3786. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the last reporting week, which under the current circumstances no longer looks accidental. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,714, while the number of Short positions increased by 7,900. The gap between Long and Short positions is now effectively 59,000 vs. 132,000. In recent months, bears have dominated more often, although the situation with euro contracts is the opposite. I still do not believe in a prolonged bearish trend for the pound, but now everything will depend not on economic indicators or Trump's trade policy, but on the duration and scale of the war in the Middle East.
Over the past year, the pound looked like a safer currency compared to the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months a correction first began while the bullish trend remained intact, and then the conflict in the Middle East started escalating almost daily. Negotiations on an agreement between the U.S. and Iran failed, so now the dollar is rising due to geopolitics.
Economic Calendar (U.S. and UK)
United Kingdom
United States
On March 13, the economic calendar contains quite a few interesting entries, but the market may once again remain fully focused on geopolitical events. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday could again be extremely weak.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3437–1.3465 level with targets at 1.3341–1.3352 and 1.3199–1.3214. The first target has already been reached, and positions can remain open.
Buying opportunities may appear today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3199–1.3214 level with a target at 1.3341–1.3352.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.2104–1.3786 on the 4-hour chart.
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