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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday made another rebound from the resistance level of 1.3437–1.3465, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and fell toward the support level of 1.3341–1.3352. A rebound from this zone would favor the pound and some growth toward the 1.3437–1.3465 level. A consolidation below the 1.3341–1.3352 level would allow traders to expect a continued decline toward the next support level of 1.3199–1.3214.
The wave situation continues to shift toward a "bullish" outlook. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips. The news background remains weak for the pound, while geopolitics gives bears an almost complete advantage in the market. The war in Iran remains the main reason for the strengthening of the US dollar. This week, the geopolitical backdrop began to shift in favor of the bulls, but this may be only an illusion.
On Wednesday, the news background did not give traders a clear direction. The GBP/USD pair stayed between two zones throughout the day. The only economic report that could attract traders' attention—the UK Consumer Price Index—did not show any unexpected values. Core inflation remained at 3%, and traders are now eagerly awaiting the March data—not only in the UK, but also in the Eurozone and the US. However, even important inflation reports, which in 2026 will directly influence central bank monetary policy, cannot outweigh geopolitics. This week began with hopes for a ceasefire between Iran and the US, but by Wednesday it became clear that this was an illusion, reportedly created by Donald Trump. For what purpose? To stabilize oil and fuel prices and prepare for a new military operation in the Middle East. In any case, there are currently no clear signs of the conflict ending. Thus, the bears could launch a new offensive at any moment.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair managed to consolidate above the descending trend channel, which so far offers little significance. The "bearish" trend may be over, but a new escalation in the Middle East could trigger another bearish move toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3215. A rebound from the 1.3340–1.3369 level would allow traders to expect some growth toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3439. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the last reporting week, although overall control still remains firmly with the bears. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,977, while short positions decreased by 23,659. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 44,000 versus 110,000. Bears have dominated in recent weeks, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but now everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East.
Over the past year, the pound looked like a safer currency compared to the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months, first a correction began within the bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict started escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the sole reason for the strengthening of the US dollar.
News Calendar for the US and UK:
US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).
On March 26, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday will be extremely weak or absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3465 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3341–1.3352. This target has been reached. New selling opportunities arise after a close below the 1.3341–1.3352 level with a target of 1.3199–1.3214. Buying opportunities may appear today after a rebound from the 1.3341–1.3352 level, with targets at 1.3437–1.3465 and 1.3526–1.3539.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.2104–1.3786 on the 4-hour chart.
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