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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Monday, driven solely by geopolitics. For the fifth consecutive day, the market bought US dollars in anticipation of escalating conflict in the Middle East. It should be noted that any statement from Donald Trump now provokes a rise in the dollar, even if the American president mentions negotiations, a ceasefire, or de-escalation. This is simply because the market no longer believes Trump. It is somewhat surprising to us that only a year into Trump's second term, the market has stopped believing him. Thus, the dollar remains in demand as a safe-haven asset, and all other factors (technical, macroeconomic, fundamental) currently carry no weight. It is worth noting that a report on German inflation for March was released yesterday, showing a sharp increase from 1.9% to 2.7%. Although the actual value matched the forecast, the sharp rise in inflation practically guarantees an increase in the ECB's key interest rate in April. No one in the market considered this fact.
On the hourly timeframe, the ascending trend line has been breached, and once again, we did not see a significant upward trend. At the beginning of 2026, the long-term upward trend resumed, so we still expect a new long-term rise in the euro. The overall fundamental backdrop remains very complicated for the US dollar; however, currently, geopolitics is the main focus for the market. It is this issue that has prevented the pair from resuming its upward global trend and has pulled it down for a month and a half.
On Tuesday, novice traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1455-1.1474 area, with targets at 1.1413 and 1.1354-1.1363. A consolidation above the area of 1.1455-1.1474 will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.1527-1.1531.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Tuesday, we can expect the Eurozone inflation report and the JOLTs report on job openings in the US. Despite these being quite interesting data points, the market may ignore them as well.
Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.
Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
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