02.04.202610:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair failed to maintain the growth formed over the past two days after reaching a weekly high the day before, and on Thursday faced notable selling pressure. Over the last five hours, spot quotes dropped below the 1.1550 level amid renewed demand for the U.S. dollar, which is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset. The trigger was a statement by U.S. President Donald Trump about a possible war with Iran, which significantly reduced expectations of de-escalation.

In an address to the nation, Trump warned that if no agreement is reached, Iran could face extremely harsh strikes within the next two to three weeks, potentially involving large-scale destruction of infrastructure. He also emphasized that the country's energy sector remains a potential target. These statements triggered a sharp rise in oil prices and increased inflation risks. Against this backdrop, expectations of tighter monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve are strengthening, which further supports the dollar and puts pressure on EUR/USD.

From a technical perspective, the inability to consolidate above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, as well as a pullback from the supply zone of 1.1620–1.1625, favors sellers. The MACD indicator, after briefly expanding in positive territory, is returning to the zero line, while the histogram is shrinking, signaling a weakening bullish impulse. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling below 50, reflecting a loss of directional momentum.

The nearest support is forming around 1.1520, where the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart passes. A break below this level will open the way for a decline toward the 1.1450 level. On the other hand, the initial resistance lies at 1.1590, ahead of the round level of 1.1600. This is followed by the 1.1610–1.1620 level, where previous local highs coincide, and then the 200-period SMA, forming a key barrier. To resume a sustained uptrend, a confident consolidation above this zone will be required, while a drop below 1.1515 will shift market focus toward 1.1450.