02.04.202612:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Forecast. Gold faced heavy pressure on Thursday

Gold (XAU/USD) partially recovered from significant intraday losses and returned closer to the $4,630 level during the European session. However, amid a notable increase in demand for the U.S. dollar, there is still no strong upward movement in the precious metal.

In his address to the nation, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran could face an extremely powerful strike within the next two to three weeks if no agreement is reached, again mentioning the possibility of "sending the country back to the Stone Age." These statements reduce hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East and reinforce the U.S. dollar's status as the world's key reserve currency, triggering an aggressive sell-off in gold. Trump also emphasized that Iran's energy infrastructure remains a potential target. Additionally, as reported on Tuesday by The Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and are lobbying for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing such an operation. This has intensified fears of further escalation and caused a sharp rise in oil prices, which is once again fueling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

In turn, this is pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher, further strengthening the dollar and increasing downward pressure on attempts to recover gold prices. The precious metal remains highly sensitive to geopolitical news, and volatility is expected to stay elevated as investors react to developments in the ongoing conflict with Iran. Under these conditions, any immediate market reaction to the closely watched U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday is likely to be limited. Nevertheless, the fundamental outlook appears more favorable for bears in XAU/USD, which calls for some caution before positioning for a continuation of the recent fairly strong rebound from the psychological $4,100 level or the four-month low near the 200-day SMA recorded last week.

From a technical perspective, Thursday's failure near the 20-day SMA favors bears. Oscillators remain in negative territory. The temporary drop below the 100-day SMA has weakened the previous bullish sentiment. If prices fail to hold this level, further declines are likely.