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The test of the price at 1.3209 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning its upward move from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.3243.
Despite a strong report on the US labor market, the US dollar only fell slightly. The labor market, which is traditionally a key indicator of economic activity, demonstrated resilience, but it was not enough. The ADP report released this past Wednesday was also strangely ignored. It is clear that the situation surrounding Iran is currently the number one problem. Investors, fearing negative consequences for the global economy, continue to reallocate their portfolios towards safer investments. In such conditions, even strong US macroeconomic indicators that would typically support the dollar have taken a back seat to concerns about global stability.
Today, there is no data from the UK, so strong movements in the pound are unlikely—especially given the Good Friday holiday.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point at 1.3244 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3269 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3269, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions back (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). It is unlikely to expect a strong rise in the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3209 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3244 and 1.3269 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3209 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3175 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of 1.3244 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3209 and 1.3175 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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