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The EUR/USD pair rose on Wednesday to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1696, rebounded from it, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began declining toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1577. A consolidation above 1.1696 would support the euro and a resumption of growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.1770.
The wave situation on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. All recent waves have formed within roughly the same price range and are similar in size. Recent news about a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new bullish wave. The picture now resembles the beginning of a new bullish trend. However, geopolitics is unstable, and the bulls' advance depends entirely on it.
Markets were turbulent on Wednesday. Overnight, the euro surged by more than 100 points, but during the day the bulls stopped pushing higher. This is because the ceasefire in the Middle East took on a rather unusual form. No sooner had Donald Trump announced a complete victory and a two-week ceasefire—during which Tehran and Washington were expected to reach a long-term peace agreement—and no sooner had Iran declared its own complete victory and claimed that Washington had accepted all its conditions, as gunfire resumed and missiles were launched across the Middle East. It turned out that Israel had been launching missile strikes on Lebanon throughout the day. Israel reportedly joined the two-week ceasefire with Iran, but this did not apply to Lebanon. Unknown forces (presumably American) struck an Iranian oil refinery, while Iran launched attacks on Bahrain. Judge for yourself how stable the ceasefire announced overnight really was. During the night, Donald Trump stated that U.S. military forces would remain in the region until Iran fulfills all the ceasefire conditions. If the ceasefire is violated, Trump promised "a new, bigger shooting than anyone has ever seen."
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to some decline toward the 76.4% level at 1.1617. However, bulls had previously managed to break above a descending trend channel, and the news background has sharply shifted in their favor. Therefore, a consolidation above 1.1706 and further growth toward 1.1778 and 1.1849 appears more likely. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 143 long positions and 8,915 short positions. Thus, over the past seven weeks, the bulls' overall advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 200,000, while short positions total 199,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.
Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's focus is on the Middle East, where the conflict continues to escalate and expand geographically. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war involving Iran. So far, the dollar is benefiting the most from this situation.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On April 9, the economic calendar contains four entries, with U.S. GDP being the most notable. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be limited.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling opportunities were possible after a rebound from 1.1696 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1577. Buy trades were recommended after a consolidation above 1.1577 with a target of 1.1696, which has been reached. New buying opportunities may arise after a close above 1.1696 with a target of 1.1770.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1577 to 1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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