09.04.202610:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD Forecast: Fragile US–Iran Ceasefire Supports Dollar, Weighs on Gold

On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) remained under pressure, although the price is holding above the round $4,700 level, which has helped halt the decline that began from a three-week high.

Skepticism about the reliability of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is providing some support to the U.S. dollar and, accordingly, weighing on gold. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's relatively moderate policy is restraining aggressive dollar buying and helping to soften gold's decline.

Israel carried out large-scale airstrikes on Lebanon, stating that the ceasefire agreement does not apply to this region due to the actions of the Hezbollah militant group. The White House confirmed that Lebanon is not included in the two-week ceasefire agreed between Iran and the United States. In response, Iran has once again blocked shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz and is threatening to withdraw from the agreement if Israel continues its attacks. This backdrop reduces optimism and strengthens the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting, published on Wednesday, indicate a willingness to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, as officials are in no hurry to cut them amid inflation risks linked to energy price shocks in the region. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve members continue to signal the possibility of rate cuts later this year and another in 2027, although the exact timing remains uncertain. These factors are helping the U.S. dollar attempt a recovery after hitting a near one-month low earlier, while also offering some support to gold prices.

Traders are also cautious ahead of the release of the key U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed's primary inflation gauge—which will be published later during the North American session. Additionally, the scheduled Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday is likely to provide further signals about future Fed policy and influence the U.S. dollar's trajectory, which in turn will be an important factor for gold prices. However, the mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution when positioning for a clear intraday direction in XAU/USD.

From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to consolidate above both the 20-day level and the key $4,700 level. If this attempt proves successful, gold will have a strong chance for further gains. However, as oscillators have not yet moved into positive territory, bulls still lack sufficient momentum.