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The price test at 1.1693 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1729.
Despite the breakdown in negotiations and the lack of agreements between the United States and Iran, the ceasefire has generally been maintained. This fact prompted traders to immediately resume buying euro assets. Financial markets seem to have accepted the possibility of an imperfect ceasefire as a given. The absence of aggressive moves from both sides has allowed investors to refocus on buying risk assets driven by fundamental factors. Although political leaders in the U.S. and Iran were unable to find common ground on the most pressing issues, they demonstrated a willingness to continue dialogue and showed restraint. One can continue to expect the trend of rising risk assets to persist, assuming there is no significant escalation of tensions.
Today, the first half of the day is expected to see only data on Germany's wholesale price index and Spain's consumer price index. Despite the seemingly modest economic calendar, these releases may affect investor sentiment and the euro's dynamics. The German wholesale price index, although not a direct indicator of inflation for end consumers, often serves as a leading indicator. Positive dynamics in this indicator can indicate rising production costs that are likely to be passed on to consumers later. In turn, data on Spain's consumer price index is one of the key factors influencing central bank decisions. If Spanish inflation comes in below forecasts, it could strengthen the case for a more accommodative European Central Bank policy, which in turn would put pressure on the euro. Conversely, unexpectedly high consumer prices could prompt a revision of expectations toward a more hawkish stance by the central bank.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1770 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1801. At the point of 1.1801, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is reasonable to expect the euro to rise in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1753 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.1770 and 1.1801.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1753 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1727, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today with a deterioration in U.S.-Iran relations. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1770 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.1753 and 1.1727.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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