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The price test at 1.3556 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. However, after a 10-pip decline, the pressure on the pair eased.
Despite positive developments in the Middle East, the British pound is cautious. This may seem paradoxical, as geopolitical stabilization in such a significant region as the Middle East traditionally has a positive impact on global financial markets. However, in the case of the British pound, the inertia of past problems and expectations of new domestic challenges seem to outweigh external positive signals.
Today, all traders are preparing for reports on the dynamics of the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which reflect the overall state of the economy. Additionally, data will be presented on changes in industrial production, which characterize the state of the manufacturing sector, as well as data on the trade balance of goods, providing insights into external trade operations. These indicators play a key role in assessing the current state of the British economy and in forecasting its future. If the published figures fall short of forecasts, it could put significant pressure on the British pound. Weak GDP data, as expected, could signal a slowdown in economic growth or even a contraction, which, in turn, would reduce the appeal of British assets to investors. Similarly, negative trends in manufacturing or a worsening trade balance could heighten concerns about the stability of the British economy.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3580 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3616 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3616, I plan to exit my long positions and sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is reasonable to expect the pound to rise only after good data today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also intend to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3561 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth toward the opposing levels of 1.3580 and 1.3616.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level at 1.3561 (red line on the chart) is reached, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3522, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound may return if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of 1.3580 occur while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.3561 and 1.3522.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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