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The price test at 159.25 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential.
The Japanese yen is demonstrating a steady tendency to weaken against the U.S. dollar. This trend is driven by increased caution among market participants, who have adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the upcoming peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The tension in the region and uncertainty about the outcome of diplomatic efforts are prompting investors to seek safer assets, often including the U.S. dollar, amid high volatility. Experts suggest that reaching a full agreement from the upcoming talks may take quite some time.
Estimates indicate that a comprehensive resolution of all issues will require more than one or two weeks. It is anticipated that this process could take about six months, highlighting the complexity and multifaceted nature of potential agreements. Such a lengthy perspective exacerbates uncertainty, encouraging traders to minimize risks. In the context of this long-term uncertainty, as global political issues take center stage, the correlation between the yen and traditional risk factors may temporarily weaken. The yen, which has often served as a safe-haven asset, is under pressure amid broader geopolitical events. Conversely, the U.S. dollar is strengthening, demonstrating resilience amid heightened risk.
As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 159.54 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.89 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.89, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.38 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth toward the opposing levels of 159.54 and 159.89.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 159.38 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 159.08, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.54 when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 159.38 and 159.08.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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